The sprint is on to pass or block health care reform. Photo by Lionel Cironneau of the Associated Press
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's decision to postpone a final vote on President Obama's health care proposal until September sets up a one-month campaign sprint between supporters and opponents of the legislation that will span over Congress' August recess.
"With final votes now pushed back to at least September, this means every pro and con group is drawing up new media plans," said Larry McCarthy, a Republican media consultant who is doing work for the conservative Americans for Prosperity. "Two week media plans just extended to eight week media plans. Targets will expand -- not only national cable and swing Senators, but more congressional districts will be added."
The White House moved quickly to put its political machine in motion, launching ads through the Democratic National Committee on Thursday designed to set the stakes for inaction on health care legislation. "Some leading Republicans, playing politics, have vowed to kill reform," says the ad's narrator. "Tell Republicans: the cost of doing nothing on health care is just too high."
American for Prosperity is spending better than $1 million on a national cable television buy this week that castigates the Canadian-style health care the president's plan would allegedly institute.
And, Rick Scott, the chairman of Conservatives for Patients' Rights, promised in a memo to supporters on Thursday that "liberal, pro-government health care advocates are intensifying their campaigns" and that "we must meet them head on and continue with ads, news events (particularly in the grassroots), media appearances, etc, to finish off the public option.
The all-out ground and air war is broadly understood as a fight for the hearts and minds of the American public but is more rightly seen as a battle for the votes of the 100 members of the Senate. (These two strands are interrelated; public opinions does tend to sway political positioning -- particularly on issues as controversial as this health care plan.)
The most important player in this fight -- aside from the president himself -- is Organizing for America, the group set up within the DNC to manage the massive 13-million person e-mail list built up during Obama's presidential campaign.
OFA was created for just this sort of fight -- to bring the political power gathered during the campaign to bear on the legislative process. The group has been active for months in the health care fight but is expected to significantly ramp up its grassroots and advertising efforts over the next month, according to sources familiar with the plans.
There will be "intensive OFA activity", promised one senior Administration official and, as if on cue, OFA sent out an e-mail appeal late Thursday night aimed at securing one million public supporters for health care reform before the end of next week.
One lingering question for the Obama White House is how much -- if any -- help they will get from progressive interest groups over the next month.
To date, the largest expenditures from the ideological left have been made by Health Care for America Now (HCAN) and the American Federation of State County and Municipal Employees who are currently on air with ads hitting several Republican members for their opposition to reform efforts. AFSCME is up with a new ad today featuring nurses speaking in favor of Obama's bill.
Given that the Democratic National Committee ended June with just $13 million in the bank (the Republican National Committee showed nearly $24 million on hand), the White House will almost certainly need other outside players to step up to match what is expected to be a barrage of spending from conservative-aligned groups over the next month.
The fate of the health care bill hangs in the balance.
Friday's Fix Picks: Did anyone else not know the "Friday Night Lights" director has a new NBC show coming this fall?
1. Dan Balz on the stakes for Obama in health care fight.
2. The final days of George Bush and Dick Cheney.
3. Another New Jersey political scandal.
4. Neil Oxman: Caddy, media consultant and movie buff.
5. A perfect game!
Obama Raises Millions for DNC: President Obama collected between $2 and $3 million for the Democratic National Committee at a pair of fundraisers last night in Chicago, according to a source familiar with the haul. The events were the first fundraisers Obama had done in his hometown since being elected president and were well attended by Windy City celebrities including Chicago Bears head coach Lovie Smith, quarterback Jay Cutler and former Chicago Bulls guard B.J. Armstrong. The fundraisers, as reported earlier this week by Politico's Mike Allen, also marked the kickoff of "Gen 44", an attempt by the DNC to keep young professionals who participated in the campaign as active donors in the years to come.
Thune Keeps Up Second Amendment Drumbeat: Days after announcing he would oppose judge Sonia Sotomayor's confirmation to the Supreme Court, Sen. John Thune sent an e-mail to supporters taking issue with the "narrow view" of the Second Amendment that Sotomayor has taken in her past rulings and urging backers to sign a petition in opposition to Sotomayor's confirmation. Thune also uses the e-mail to detail his -- unsuccessful -- fight to pass an amendment earlier this week that would have allowed concealed weapons to be carried across state lines. "Overheated rhetoric overcame common sense in this case," said Thune of his amendment's defeat. As we wrote earlier this week, Thune is moving into the national conversation on the Republican side and appears to be adopting the Second Amendment as his pet issue.
LaMontagne Draws Conservative Backer: As former gubernatorial nominee Ovide LaMontagne continues to mull the possibility of challenging former New Hampshire attorney general Kelly Ayotte in next year's Republican Senate primary, a key Granite State conservative has signed on to his bid. Former state Rep. Maureen Mooney, who served as John McCain's liaison to conservatives during the 2008 presidential primary fight is backing a LaMontagne candidacy -- praising him as a "principled and experienced conservative." The Mooney endorsement comes one day after LaMontagne announced that Jim Merill, who served as New Hampshire director for former governor Mitt Romney's (Mass.) 2008 primary campaign, was serving as a senior adviser to his nascent campaign. LaMontagne has also brought on Charlie Spies, a well known Republican lawyer in Washington, to help advise him on a bid. While national Republicans seem keen on Ayotte, it's clear that LaMontagne has no plans to step aside -- setting up a likely primary fight next year.
NY-23 Special Takes Shape: Rep. John McHugh (R-N.Y.) hasn't even formally resigned his seat to take the post as Secretary of the Army but the race to replace him is already in full swing. Earlier this week, the 11 Republican county chairs in the district picked state Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, a pro-choice moderate, as their nominee. And on Thursday state Sen. Darrel Aubertine, the strongest potential Democratic candidate, announced he would not run; "My priority must continue to be the work I have started in the state Senate," Aubertine said in a statement. While Aubertine's decision not to run is a blow to Democrats, the potential candidacy of Jim Kelly (not the former Bills quarterback) for the Conservative line in the primary could cut into Scozzafava's Republican support. This race will be a major priority for both sides this fall that will, like it or not, be mined for national implications.
Rubio Staff Shakeup: Former Florida state House Speaker Marco Rubio parted ways with his campaign manager, Brian Seitchik, and his chief fundraiser in a staff shuffle that reflects the struggles of his Senate primary campaign against Gov. Charlie Crist (R). "Speaker Rubio believes it is necessary to click the reset button in certain areas of the campaign," said Alex Burgos, a spokesman for the campaign. "He based his decisions on current realities that weren't evident when the campaign was organized earlier this year." Rubio will bring in Pat Shortridge, a former aide to Reps. Dick Armey (Texas) and Mark Kennedy (Minn.), to serve as a senior adviser. Despite the staff and fundraising problems, Rubio is still committed to staying in the race, said Burgos.
Selzer to Bloomberg: J. Ann Selzer, the Iowa-based pollster who nailed the 2008 Iowa caucuses on the Democratic side, has signed on to handle survey research for Bloomberg News. The first Selzer survey for Bloomberg was a poll of global investors that shows, among other things, that Obama is wildly popular internationally.
Click It!: South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint (R), under fire from the Democratic National Committee, has posted a video response to the charge that he has "no plan" that features DeMint talking, in a variety of settings, about his plans for health care reform. At 98 seconds long, it's worth watching if for no other reason than the acoustic guitar music at the end.
Say What?: "We need someone to stand up to Barack Obama and his policies. We must protect our culture, our Christian identity." -- Arkansas Senate hopeful Conrad Reynolds (R), proving that political incorrectness is epidemic in the Razorback State.
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